Consumer Federation of California

Traditionally,
tax measures need to start out a fall campaign with much healthier
support — around 60 percent — to survive voters’ inherent skepticism
toward tax hikes, Tulchin said.

Voters
continue to prefer Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax initiative solidly over
wealthy civil rights attorney Molly Munger’s, but a new poll shows signs
that the governor’s measure may be vulnerable to attack ads.

Brown’s
initiative, Proposition 30, holds a 55 to 36 percent lead in an online
poll by PACE/USC Rossier School of Education, while the measure
bankrolled by Munger, Proposition 38, has the support of only 40 percent
of likely voters, with 49 percent opposed.

When online survey
takers were shown a simulated advertising campaign on Proposition 30 —
with a 90-second Web ad from the yes side and a radio ad from the no
side — support dropped slightly, 52 to 34 percent.

The numbers
suggest some weakness heading into the fall campaign, said Ben Tulchin, a
Democratic pollster who worked with M4 Strategies in conducting the
survey. The intensity level of supporters — 23 percent of whom strongly
support Proposition 30 — is no better than the strong opposition to
it.

"Its prospects are partly cloudy with a chance of rain,"
Tulchin said. "The ray of sunshine for the yes on 30 campaign is it’s
still hanging on even after attacks, but by its fingernails."

Both
measures would primarily fund schools: Proposition 30 would raise $6
billion a year, the amount that would have to be cut from schools if it
fails. Proposition 38 would raise $10 billion a year for 12 years,
though not until the fiscal year beginning next July.

If both pass, the one with the most votes would take effect.

"Typically the trajectory for
revenue measures is downward," he said. "They’ll be hard-pressed to hold
a lead. They can do it if they can out-resource the other side."

Brown’s campaign has about $8.4 million cash on hand, while opponents have about $1 million.

The
online poll, which surveyed 1,041 likely voters from Aug. 3 to Aug. 7,
has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The online
survey is designed to reflect the geographic, ideological and
demographics of likely California voters.

Online polls are
considered controversial among some established pollsters but accepted
as the next logical progression in survey-taking by other leading
pollsters and universities as it becomes increasingly difficult to
contact voters by phone and survey participation rates decline.

A month ago, the Field Poll showed Proposition 30 ahead 54 to 38 percent, with support for Proposition 38 split at 46-46.

Ace
Smith, campaign manager for Proposition 30, which would hike the income
tax rate on couples making $500,000 or more and raise the sales tax by a
quarter cent, said it’s showing "incredible resiliency and is holding
up awfully well."

He questioned whether voters form their opinion in the same way that the survey simulated the campaign.

"It’s
all a bit artificial because that’s not how people consume
information," Smith said, adding that he does not subscribe to the idea
that support for the tax measure will necessarily go down from now until
Election Day.

"That’s stale conventional wisdom," he said. "On
ballot measures where there’s a minute amount of public knowledge,
that’s true. But this is something that everyone in California knows
what’s at stake, so you just throw the conventional wisdom out the window."

Prospects
for Proposition 38 are "much worse," Tulchin said. Thirty percent of
respondents strongly opposed the measure, while only 11 percent strongly
supported it. "So that suggests it’s even a tougher uphill climb for
Proposition 38."

Proposition 38 would raise taxes on all but those making less than $7,316, with the wealthiest facing the stiffest hike.

Nathan Ballard, a spokesman for Proposition 38, said poll numbers won’t mean much until the campaign gets under way in earnest.

"Once
we begin our aggressive campaign on the airwaves, Proposition 38 will
climb rapidly in the polls as voters learn about its benefits for our
public schools," he said.